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2	CEFN CROES, WALES, Autumn 2004
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6	Sphagnum palustre, Whinash
7	DEFINING THE PROBLEM Aging generating plant Dwindling UK oil & gas reserves Rising electricity demand No central authority Climate change Inadequate current renewables programme
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12	GOVERNMENT TARGETS ELECTRICITY 10% FROM RENEWABLES BY 2010 (10GW = 38TWh) ----------------- RISING TO 20% BY 2020 (20GW = 76TWh) GHGs 12.5% Þ OF GHGs OVER 1990 LEVELS BY 2010 --------------------------------------------------- NATIONAL GOAL TO REACH 20% Þ BY 2010 ---------------------------------------------------- ASPIRATION TO REACH 60% Þ BY 2050
13	MISCONCEPTIONS 1. Wind turbines only generate electricity 30% of the time WRONG 2. Electricity can be stored WRONG
14	TYPICAL WIND SPEED FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION & TURBINE POWER CURVE
15	MYTH If we build large numbers of wind farms we won’t need nuclear power WRONG
16	Not beautiful but at least it runs 80% of the time
17	Base load and demand
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19	MYTH Wind farms can provide most of our future electricity supply WRONG
20	"The Renewable Energy Foundation asked..." The Renewable Energy Foundation asked AEA Technology to calculate LFs for the English Regions, Scotland & Wales. They agreed but had to send the results to the DTI The DTI blanked out over 50% of the data as ‘confidential’ before passing it to REF REF have refused to pay the bill
21	LOAD FACTORS 1996-2004
22	Ofgem and Load Factors “......we would like to point out that until recently this was based on generators estimates rather than actual output. Since ROC data has been used the output statistics have indicted lower capacity factors than appear to have been used for the earlier estimates” Gareth Evans, Technical Advisor, Ofgem, to Hugh Sharman, Denmark 17^th January 2005
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26	MONTHLY LOAD FACTORS FOR THREE WINDFARMS 12/2003 to 11/2004 (Data from Ofgem ROC Register)
27	MONTHLY LOAD FACTORS FOR SWAFFHAM 2 WINDFARM 12/2003 to 11/2004 (Data from Ofgem ROC Register)
28	MONTHLY LOAD FACTORS FOR CATON & LAMBRIGG WINDFARMS - 12/2003 to 11/2004 (Data from Ofgem ROC Register)
29	MYTH Wind farms (i) reduce greenhouse gas emissions and (ii) prevent global warming (i) HIGHLY SUSPECT (ii) WRONG
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31	How much CO₂ is ‘saved’? Wind industry use 0.86 tonnes per megawatt hour (MWh) Ian Cawley MP for Humberside wrote to Mike O’Brien the Energy Minister on 16^th Feb 2005 for HAT suggesting a fuel mix figure of not more than 0.43 t/MWh was correct On March 15^th O’Brien replied, “…..we agree with the paper that it would be appropriate to use an average electricity generation mix when calculating the current CO₂ savings from a wind turbine……”
32	CO₂ SAVINGS BY 2010? DEFRA, December 2004. Review of the Climate Change Programme, Consultation Paper, p.42 and footnote “…..[REACHING THE TARGET]…..is estimated to save 2.5 million tonnes of carbon in 2010” ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.5 X44/12 = 9.2 million tonnes CO₂ From 33,600,000 MWh of renewable electricity 9,200,000 ÷ 33,600,000 = 0.27 tonnes /MWh
33	CO₂ SAVINGS BY 2010? “……..10% of supply from renewables in 2010 would save approximately 2.5 million tonnes of carbon per year if the equivalent amount of energy were generated from gas”. Mike O’Brien [Energy Minister]. House of Commons Written Answers, Hansard 2^nd Feb. 2005, Column 929W
34	ARE THERE ANY SAVINGS? “When plant is de-loaded to balance the system, it results in a significant proportion of the plant operating relatively inefficiently…… …..it has been estimated that the entire benefit of the renewables programme has been negated by the increased emissions from part loaded plant…….” David Tolley (Innogy plc), Jan 2003, Address to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers
35	ARE THERE ANY SAVINGS? “.....it is worth noting that the Government is committed to reducing the CO₂ emissions by 26.5 million tonnes by 2010….. This analysis suggests that the current ‘dash for wind’ could actually make the situation worse” ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RJ Bass & P Wilmot, ‘Wind Power may not be the answer’, UK Journal of Power, July 2004
36	VANISHING CO₂ SAVINGS
37	Typical Planning Appliction claims e.g. proposed Whinash wind farm “……the 27 turbines will generate an average of 207,000 MWh each year, enough for 47,630 houses”. (based on 35% LF) “…….…will save 177,980 tonnes of CO₂, (based on 0.86t/MWh) “over 25 years CO₂ savings will be 4.4 million tonnes
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39	MYTH We can’t meet our future targets without a massive wind power programme FALSE
40	TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Impact of integrating renewables & CHP into the UK transmission network by Wu, Jenkins and Strbach, 2002
41	DTI Renewables Innovations Review – February 2004
42	SUMMARY We have a looming problem of fuel supply The Governments answer is ‘all gas and wind’ This is leading to the pillage of the British countryside There is hopeless confusion about Government targets Wind turbines generate some electricity 75-80% if the time But wind is intermittent, unreliable and unpredictable So wind cannot replace nuclear base-load generation Wind cannot address the growing gap in electricity need Load Factors are less than developers claim CO₂ savings are much less than developers claim CLAIMS FOR WIND ARE GROSSLY EXAGGERATED AND CANNOT SERIOUSLY ADDRESS GOVERNMANT TARGETS
43	CONCLUSIONS Renewable electricity targets should be scrapped as a means of reducing CO₂ They could be replaced by Regional targets for CO₂ abatement This would open up opportunities such as efficiency schemes, local incentives, alternative renewables which would engender a sense of local participation and ownership This would remove the need for the divisive, pointless, and widespread plunder of our countryside
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